Yesterday, in my book review of István Szent-Iványi’s book on a desirable course for Hungarian foreign policy, I quoted at some length several of his recommendations. He is convinced that Viktor Orbán’s antagonistic policies toward the European Union in the long run are harmful to Hungarian interests. In his opinion, a few policy changes could make an appreciable difference in the currently antagonistic relationship between Brussels and Budapest. First and foremost, Orbán’s inflexible anti-migration policy should be abandoned. If he were more cooperative in trying to find a common solution to this problem, he would greatly lessen the tension that exists today. At the end of the review, I expressed my doubts that Orbán will give up his anti-migrant stance, which he considers the source of both his domestic and his international success.
Instead of toning down his shrill condemnation of the European Union and its migration policy, in the last few months he has become more recalcitrant, refusing to cooperate in matters of joint action by the Union. Two cases of recent vintage caused open condemnation of Hungary by most of the member states. One is the threat of a veto of a joint declaration prepared for the EU-Arab League Summit, to be held in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, at the end of February. The other is a possible veto of the plan to extend the European Union’s arms embargo against Belarus.
The EU-Arab League Summit has been long in the making. The European Union is trying to come to an understanding with the 22 Arab states that belong to the League over cooperation on migration. The Arab governments seem to be willing to take in more refugees and also are apparently ready to take steps to slow the exodus of refugees from their own countries. A similar deal with Turkey has slowed the number of asylum seekers considerably in the last two years. Such an agreement is clearly to the advantage of EU member states, and it should be especially welcomed by the Orbán government. But this is not how things played out.
Before the summit, to be chaired by Federica Mogherini, EU’s quasi foreign minister, the final proposal had to be discussed in several forums. First, the permanent representatives of the member states got together on January 30, where they were confronted with the announcement of Olivér Várhelyi, Hungarian ambassador to the European Union, that Hungary will not sign the document because there is a reference in it to the United Nations Global Migration Pact, which Hungary refused to sign. Although this is the official excuse offered for vetoing the document, I suspect that the “high-ranking Hungarian diplomat” who told Euractiv Croatia that “the current European Parliament should make no decision on issues related to migration and the rule of law as it does not represent the will of EU citizens” is closer to the truth. Viktor Orbán is hoping for a “revolution” at the May EP elections and wants to postpone all decisions pertaining to refugee issues.
It’s becoming a habit
My suspicion is reinforced by the total inflexibility of the Hungarian position throughout the negotiations. No watering down of the reference to the UN migration pact made the slightest difference as far as the Hungarian position was concerned. Because an agreement between the Arab League and the European Union is so important, another meeting of the permanent representatives was scheduled for February 1 in the hope that Várhelyi would be able to change Viktor Orbán’s mind in the interim. This second meeting was described by an EU diplomat as “a diplomatic rampage” by Hungary. In another journalistic version, “Hungarian diplomacy is running amok and we have become its tools.”
It was in that atmosphere that today the 28 foreign ministers got together to discuss the proposed final text. Given last week’s failed attempts to convince Hungary to join the others, it was inevitable that Hungary would say no. After the meeting the “Cabinet Office of the Prime Minister” released a statement in which Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó is quoted as saying that “the lie of the pro-immigration Brussels politicians has been uncovered because it has once again transpired that Brussels has taken the side of the UN Global Pact for Migration and ‘although they tried to mislead us’ that the migration package will not be mandatory, they are attempting to adopt it.” This mischaracterization of the document didn’t impress other European diplomats. The German permanent representative to the European Union went so far as to point to possible consequences when the 2021-2027 budget is drawn up.
But this is not the only trouble spot in EU-Hungarian relations at the moment. There is also Belarus, which Viktor Orbán will be visiting soon. Ever since 2011 there has been an EU arms embargo against Belarus. The embargo is extended every year, and this extension needs the unanimity of the 28 EU members. The deadline for the rollover is February 28, but apparently Hungary “is holding back its consent for now.” This is not the first time that Viktor Orbán is trying to curry favor with the Belorussian dictator, Aleksandr Lukashenka. A year ago, Hungary and Slovakia pressured the European Union to exempt small-caliber sports guns from the arms embargo. At that time Hungary also wanted to add spare parts for helicopters to the list of exemptions, but later it backed down.
This time Hungary upped the ante. The Hungarian government threatens to veto the extension unless negotiations between Brussels and Minsk are expedited. Negotiations between the European Union and Belarus have been going on for the last two years over the Belarus Partnership Priorities, which would deal with such topics as people-to-people contacts, environmental issues, economic cooperation, and human rights. Apparently, the document is ready to be signed, but Lithuania, a neighbor of Belarus, insists on several safeguards with regard to a nuclear power plant that is being built with Russian financing about 50 km from Vilnius, the country’s capital.
And so, soon enough, the 28 permanent representatives may face another Hungarian veto, with Hungary coming to the defense of Belarus, nicknamed the “Last Dictatorship in Europe.”