I suspect that most Hungarians were glued to their television sets today, watching the Croatian-Hungarian football game, which was most unexpectedly won by the Hungarians in a show of “astonishing virtuosity,” as the pro-government Origo put it. For those of us who are interested in politics, the message Viktor Orbán delivered this morning on Magyar Rádió’s “Sunday News” program was equally unexpected. A day after most commentators interpreted Fidesz’s suspension from the European People’s Party as a major blow to Viktor Orbán’s political career in Europe, we heard a revitalized prime minister ready “to show Brussels” what he is really made of.
Attila Ara-Kovács, DK’s foreign policy expert with wide-ranging diplomatic contacts, in his most recent blog post, “The day that shook Fidesz,” described the scene that apparently took place in front of the doors behind which Viktor Orbán was waging his battle with the representatives of EPP. Gergely Gulyás, Péter Szijjártó, and Antal Rogán, standing in the corridor, were explaining to sympathizers waiting for word from within that “Viktor Orbán is just handing over Fidesz’s resignation.” According to those present, the three Fidesz politicians were stunned when they learned that, instead of voluntarily resigning, Orbán accepted the punishment of suspension.
Apparently, the greatest worry of the three Fidesz politicians was “how they can sell this news to the hardcore Fidesz followers” who have been wound up by the official government media’s inflammatory and vituperative articles. István Szent-Iványi, who for a while acted as foreign policy adviser to the liberals, in a television interview pondered the same thing. How can Orbán accept a deal with EPP without losing his popularity with his voters, who want him to continue to be as tough as he has been until now?
EPP, by sending a “monitoring committee” to Hungary, was hoping to ensure a fair campaign to elect representatives to the next European Parliament, not to have a continuation of the Hungarian government’s crusade against the European Union’s institutions, including the European Commission and the European Parliament. But, I’m afraid, after this interview such hopes are dashed. Viktor Orbán pretty well announced that the same vicious attack, disguised as an “information campaign,” will continue.
I learned about the interview from a Reuters’ report, which somewhat hesitantly interpreted Orbán’s interview not as a call for a renewed anti-EU campaign but as a statement about its possibility. After reading the Hungarian summary of the interview, co-signed by MTI, the official Hungarian news agency, and the Hungarian government, I think there is nothing “conditional” about the continuation of the anti-European Union campaign in the next two months. Such sentences as “our job now is to continuously inform people about what Brussels is up to” leave no doubt of Fidesz’s intention to continue the anti-Juncker campaign, just without Juncker. Fidesz will pull the poster child of the EU from its ad campaign but will keep hammering away at the dangers that Brussels poses to the sovereignty of Hungary and to Christian Europe as a whole. “What Brussels is up to” was the theme of the information campaign that led to the suspension of Fidesz from EPP.
Orbán began the interview with his usual complaints about the unreasonable demands of the European Union and his governments’ non-compliant answers, going all the way back to 2010. In his usual fashion, he paid little attention to veracity, accusing the EU of demands they never made. As a result, “Brussels” comes off as an ogre and he as a messiah. As far as he is concerned, “it matters not who shakes his fist; we don’t yield when it comes to our basic rights … We will be the ones who will decide our fate, just as we have in the last one thousand years.” The campaign will continue. Although “they are a bit angry with us in Brussels, we mustn’t back down and get frightened.”
As for the future, he has high hopes for his own party. By contrast, he foresees a mournful destiny for EPP, which he described as a party that has lost its sovereignty and that is under the influence of the left. “Behind the scenes EPP already shook hands on a deal with the liberals and the greens to create a pro-migration grand coalition.” Fidesz cannot be part of such a parliamentary group, and therefore “after the European elections we will decide whether we will have to continue our work in EPP or instead will find our place in some other political group.” When journalists asked for clarification, his spokesman replied that “the prime minister’s words speak for themselves.” Not too many comments appeared in non-Hungarian papers on the interview, but the British Express, a strongly right-biased and pro-Brexit paper, greeted Orbán’s announcement with the following headline: “’We should NOT back down!’ Panic for Brussels as Orbán launches new anti-EU campaign.”
After this announcement, I believe that sending the three wise men to Hungary to monitor how closely Fidesz and the Orbán government are adhering to the agreed promises would be worthless. Already Katalin Novák, the leader of Fidesz’s own committee, indicated that the three older Christian Democratic statesmen will not have the opportunity to carry out an independent investigation. At best they can sit down and have a chat with the Fidesz committee, during which the Hungarians will explain to the visitors that all is well in Orbanistan. Under these new circumstances, I don’t think that the three wise men should be dispatched at all, since their presence might provide more fodder for the anti-EU campaign.
I’m certain that in the next few days Manfred Weber will have the uncomfortable task of responding to Viktor Orbán’s renewed anti-EPP and anti-EU campaign, but I don’t expect another confrontation. It’s hard to imagine that EPP is ready for a second round with Fidesz. Instead, the Christian Democrats should begin negotiations with other parties on how to deal with the growth of the far right. They should work together against people like Viktor Orbán and his friends, whose attacks on the European Union might otherwise have fateful consequences. Just as Orbán’s behavior demonstrates, shaking one’s fists leads nowhere. In fact, the Christian Democrats’ appeasement over the years has contributed to the current situation in Hungary. After almost ten years the country is suffering under one-party rule and the Hungarian prime minister is working furiously to demolish the whole European Union. It’s time to do more than wagging fingers at him. Take the money away and his whole corrupt edifice will collapse.