At the beginning of March, Medián made public its most recent findings on Hungarians’ support for their country’s membership in the European Union. On the surface, the results are impressive. Ever since 2004, when Hungary joined the EU, the approval rate has been consistently above 70%. In fact, last year support for Hungary’s membership reached a record (85%). Even a majority of the somewhat euroskeptic Jobbik voters support membership in the European Union.
The fifteenth anniversary of Hungary becoming part of the EU has prompted the publication of several polls, surveys, and studies concentrating on Hungarian attitudes toward and expectations of the country’s membership. As a result of their efforts, a much more refined and variegated picture has emerged of Hungarians’ views of the European Union.
Some of the findings are outright encouraging. For example, Pulzus, a relatively new polling firm, found that one of the messages of the Orbán propaganda machine, the defense of Hungarian sovereignty, is not having the impact Fidesz hoped for. Only 34% of the adult population take the threat to the country’s sovereignty seriously, while 50% think that Viktor Orbán’s emphasis on the defense of the country’s sovereignty is merely a ruse to mask Orbán’s own political ambitions. In general, only a minority (29%) believe that the problems facing Europe today can be solved by individual nation states while 41% believe that greater integration is the proper answer to the current problems facing the Union. The rest (30%) had either no opinion or refused to answer.
But the most informative survey, taken by Policy Solutions, which describes itself as a progressive research institute “committed to the values of liberal democracy, solidarity, equal opportunity and European integration,” offers less reason to rejoice. For Hungarians, the real attraction of the EU is the huge financial support the country has been enjoying in the last ten years or so. The headline of the article that summarizes Policy Solutions’ findings reads: “The cash cow that brought us the migrants: This is how Hungarians see the EU.”
Policy Solutions confirms the findings of all the other pollsters–that around 75% of the adult population consider Hungary’s membership in the European Union beneficial. But why? Respondents were asked to come up with the top things they associate with the EU. The most popular answer was the union funds and their beneficial impact on the economy (16.1%). The second (12.4%) was the migrants. The third was the notion of belonging to a community (11.6%), followed by Schengen and work opportunities abroad. The rest were negative remarks.
The pollsters received similar results when the respondents were asked to name specific advantages of the membership. Over fifty percent of them talked about the financial benefits and economic growth. The benefits of Schengen don’t seem to excite too many Hungarians (15.5%), probably because relatively few people have the financial means for foreign excursions. As is clear from the attached graphic, outside of the financial benefits, Schengen, and job opportunities abroad, the Hungarian public sees few other advantages. “Belonging to a community” (3.1%) and “European values” (1.6%) barely move the needle. In view of their preoccupation with the financial benefits of membership in the EU, it is not surprising that the majority of Hungarians would welcome the introduction of the euro, which is squarely rejected by the Orbán government. In fact, the Fidesz framers of the 2011 constitution explicitly stated that the currency of the country is the forint. Viktor Orbán’s last word on the subject was that a currency change is not going to happen in the foreseeable future.
Respondents were also encouraged to talk about the disadvantages of EU membership, and no one who knows the Hungarian political situation today will be surprised that the first item on the list was migration (31.7%), followed by the loss of sovereignty (25.5%). As far as the issue of migration is concerned, the Orbán government has achieved its goal: 65% of the respondents believe that the EU wants to force Hungary to accept immigrants. This is true even among supporters of the opposition parties and undecided voters.
Policy Solutions confirms Pulzus’s finding that a large majority of the population, including Fidesz voters, are convinced that a significant portion of the EU funds are stolen. Although many worry in general about a loss of sovereignty, 79% would like to see more stringent supervision of funds and 76% would like Hungary to join the other 23 countries in allowing the European Prosecutor to adjudicate corruption cases involving EU funds.
The idealism of European values clearly doesn’t resonate with the vast majority of Hungarians. On the other hand, the possible reduction in, or even a loss of, EU funds flowing to the country might change the general perception of the EU’s advantages to Hungary. Since material benefits are the primary reason for Hungarians’ favorable opinion of the European Union, one must assume that any cut in these benefits will have a negative impact on their assessment of the organization. And since Viktor Orbán and his team have managed to convince the voters that the Union wants to foist “alien” migrants on Hungary, surely they will have no difficulty taking the Hungarian public one more step: that the smaller amount of money that will be available in the next seven years is actually punishment for Hungary’s refusal to be deluged by masses of unwanted migrants.