Well, it is almost over. Apparently, the vote was unanimous, with Chancellor Angela Merkel abstaining.
Here is the list of nominees: Ursula von der Leyen, German minister of defense, for president of the European Commission; Charles Michel, Belgian prime minister, for president of the European Council; the Spanish Josep Borrell, minister of foreign affairs, European Union and Cooperation, to become the next high representative of the Union for foreign affairs and security policy, and Christine Lagarde, managing director and chairman of the International Monetary Fund, for the post of chairman of the European Central Bank. So, two women, but no one from Eastern Europe.
Two days ago, one of the journalists of Magyar Hang somewhat sarcastically noted that, whatever the final result of the deliberations over the person of the next president of the European Commission, in Hungary “the government explanation will be that Viktor Orbán won.” Indeed, government communication always declares that the Hungarian people, represented by Viktor Orbán, are the winners even when their prime minister actually loses. But this time, it is not only Orbán who claims victory for himself. Martin Schulz, the former leader of the German Social Democratic Party, wrote on Twitter that what happened today is “a victory for Orbán and Co.” because they prevented Timmermans from standing for the rule of law. According to information that reached Politico, Manfred Weber also considers Macron and Orbán the culprits who “killed the Spitzenkandidat process.”
So, this time it is not only Orbán who considers himself the winner. Important western politicians also single him out as a big-time player who managed to derail the whole plan devised by the top politicians of France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain. I understand Schulz’s anger and Weber’s disappointment, but I believe they overestimate Orbán’s role in this process.
A quick look at the list of countries whose names cropped up during the last two days as adamantly opposing the socialist Timmermans’ nomination shows that it was not only the V4 countries and Ireland that protested, but that Italy also refused to support the Merkel plan. I have the feeling, which could perhaps more accurately be designed as a wild guess, that without the Italian opposition, Merkel and Macron could have handled the V4 countries by wooing the two weak links, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and giving up on the two recalcitrant naysayers, Poland and Hungary. Just think of the contentious nomination of Jean-Claude Juncker five years ago when his nomination was approved without the votes of Great Britain and Hungary. But without Italy, one of the founding members of the European Union with a population of 60 million, in addition to Poland, passing the nomination became impossible.
Still, we have to give Orbán credit for keeping the V4 countries together and influencing the language of the conversation. In his letter to Joseph Daul he talked about the “humiliation of the European People’s Party” of allowing Frans Timmermans, the candidate of the smaller socialist group, to become president of the commission. He also called attention to “the serious blow on the prestige of the European People’s Party in the eyes of [its] voters.” These words were echoed yesterday and today during the discussions, which were widely discussed by journalists and the public on social media.
Over the past few months Orbán’s aims, as far as his relations with EPP are concerned, have morphed as circumstances changed. First was his uncompromising opposition to any kind of EPP collaboration with the liberals and the socialists. His vision for EPP was close cooperation with the parties gathering on the far right of the political spectrum. He announced several times that if EPP becomes part of a coalition that include the socialists and/or the liberals, he will have to leave the Christian Democratic group.
As time went by, he began concentrating on the removal of Manfred Weber as the EPP Spitzenkandidat, but by the time he arrived in Brussels, faced with an entirely new situation, he shifted his focus to Frans Timmermans, one of his severest critics in the European Union. If Timmermans had become president of the commission, Viktor Orbán would have had a very hard time on account of his illiberalism and his destruction of Hungary’s democratic structure.
So, Weber couldn’t be supported because he didn’t respect Hungarians. Timmermans was out because he was an “ideologue” who looked down on and discriminated against the East European countries. What kind of candidate could be certain of Hungary’s support? According to Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, three conditions were necessary for that honor: “Respect of nation states, determination to secure the primacy of Christian culture in Europe, and resolve to halt migration.”
Surely, Viktor Orbán cannot think that Ursula von der Leyen fulfills these three expectations. Although there are many objections to her nomination, most people describe her as a staunch supporter of a United States of Europe. The Washington Post quotes her in an interview with Der Spiegel in 2011 as saying that her “aim is the [creation of a] United States of Europe—on the model of federal states such as Switzerland, Germany or the U.S.” She added that a United States of Europe could use its “size advantage” on financial, taxation, and economic questions which, I’m sure, will only add to Donald Trump’s intense dislike of the European Union. British papers call her either a “staunch EU federalist” or an “ultra-federalist.” In any case, given her strong attachment to the idea of a deeply integrated Europe, she cannot be an admirer of the Hungarian ideal of nation states and nationalism. I am also certain that von der Leyen, as a close political ally of Angela Merkel, entertains no thoughts of hermetically closing off Europe to regulated immigration. As for Christian culture, few western Europeans share the kind of “political religiosity” Orbán is trying to force on the reluctant Hungarians. So much for the perfect choice.
As for Manfred Weber, Orbán is stuck with him at the head of the EPP delegation, unless the 13 Fidesz members are expelled or Viktor Orbán moves his troops to another group — to join, for example, their Polish comrades in the Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe (ACRE). Such a move may still be forthcoming. At the time of Fidesz’s suspension, the EPP leadership expected to decide Fidesz’s fate during a November meeting.
József Szájer is not helping Fidesz’s cause. According to two members of EPP, Szájer, who doesn’t seem to be humbled by his party’s suspension, delivered a long speech today in Strasbourg in which he lectured the leadership of the delegation on the necessity of firmly opposing the Timmermans nomination. He also accused Angela Merkel of betraying the interests of EPP and Christian Democracy. The speech was not well received by some of the German members, including Manfred Weber, who reminded Szájer of Fidesz’s campaign against his nomination. As Katalin Halmai, Népszava’s correspondent in Brussels, noted, this exchange may not advance Szájer’s quest to have not just one but two Fidesz nominees for positions of vice-presidency. We know from earlier statements that Szájer counts on placing Fidesz members in these high positions. This is doubly the case after both DK and Momentum announced that their parties’ MEPs, Klára Dobrev and Katalin Cseh respectively, had their nominations approved by their parliamentary groups, S&D and ALDE.
Right now, everybody is breathing a sigh of relief that this fracas is over, but that is unfortunately not the case. For example, the European Parliament must approve with an absolute majority the nominee for president of the European Council. In addition, they will take a vote tomorrow on the president of the European Parliament. And Ursula von der Leyen’s appointment may still run into trouble since not everybody is happy with the choice. If she fails, the European Council can start this painful process all over again.
