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Viktor Orbán struggles to cast his battle with the EU as a strategy to protect Hungary from immigrants

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Apparently, Viktor Orbán’s psyche is not in the best shape, given the tense political situation in which he finds himself. Normally, he relishes fights with his adversaries, but perhaps because the prospects of victory are fairly dim at the moment, in his chat today at the state radio station he became agitated. He invented stories in lieu of rational arguments.

Before I analyze Orbán’s interview, I should mention a letter he wrote to his nemesis Manfred Weber, who must have upset Orbán to no end with the press conference he gave, in which he reiterated earlier intelligence that there are no technical and legal obstacles to creating a rescue fund for only 25 member states, excluding Hungary and Poland. Although Weber insisted that the rule of law conditionality’s purpose “is not the condemnation of the Hungarian prime minister or a position taken against Hungary or Poland, but is a statement in defense of the independence of the courts and the freedom of the media,” Orbán was not appeased. Today he wrote a letter to Weber, which the Hungarian press described as “hysterical, “offensive,” and “muddled.” It is muddled because of an absolutely baffling explanation of the meaning of the word “samizdat.” We all know what “samizdat” meant in the Soviet Union and in some satellite countries, including Hungary, but, according to Orbán, it now means an answer to “the mainstream of European media which excludes, neglects, and forbids those thoughts which don’t fit their worldview.” That is why, claims Orbán, Central Europeans invented “samizdat,” which in his interpretation means “write, print, read, distribute! Sam izdat, meaning from us, to us.”

His morning interview already had some insulting references to Germans in general and Weber in particular. Here is one  example. “Hungarians are not as numerous as the Germans, but we are not stupid. We can find connections between seemingly independent events because we can think straight.” As for the EU as a whole, it wants to take away “the right of resistance.”

I picked two topics from the interview that deserve closer scrutiny. The first is “the case of the 34 million migrants who are expected to be settled in the European Union.” Let me start with Gergely Gulyás’s press conference yesterday, in which there was a lone mysterious sentence about the Hungarian government’s rejection of “the European Commission’s migration action plan.” Today Magyar Nemzet elaborated on the theme. In this interpretation, “if the Hungarian government doesn’t persevere in the budget debate, it will lose all means of thwarting the European Union’s immigration plans.” According to the Hungarian propaganda, this action plan entails “the political activization of more than 10 million migrants currently in the European Union” and includes the settlement of millions more.

By the time Viktor Orbán delivered his monologue this morning, the numbers became quite specific. According to him, the European Commission wants to give voting rights to 34 million migrants in the Union, which would for a long time ensure the majority of the political left. This has been the plan in the western part of the EU for some time, but now “the Hungarian left is also working on something like that.” This Soros plan must be prevented because “we are Hungarians and Christians.” Contrary to Orbán’s portrayal of the EU’s nefarious intent, the European Commission’s action plan on Integration and Inclusion for the period 2021-2027 is basically a plan to integrate current inhabitants of the European Union who came from a country outside the borders of the EU. That naturally includes immigrants from the Balkans, Ukraine, Belarus, Turkey, etc.

A recent poll explains the Orbán regime’s emphasis on migration as an explanation for its refusal to accept the rule-of-law conditionality. Half of the Hungarian electorate is convinced that the EU’s insistence on rule-of-law conditionality is a punishment for Hungary’s refusal to admit refugees. So, it is politically smart to come up with this cockeyed story of 34 million migrants invading the Union and overtaking the native population.

But what really frightened some people was Orbán’s hawking the advantages of a totally independent nation state outside of the European Union. The example he brought up was also an untrue story about the “independent” United Kingdom, where, “as of this morning, masses of people are receiving the vaccine.” What an outlandish situation, he declared. Hungary pays for research projects and “here is Great Britain, which left the EU, and yet they get the vaccine before we do.” Why is that so? “The answer is that whoever quits, goes its own way, seeks its own solution, can protect the health and lives of its citizens sooner than we who have stayed…. So, I cannot accept the fact that, while multinational companies negotiate in Brussels, 150-200 people will die [in Hungary] every day.”

Of course, most of this is bonkers. First of all, the United Kingdom, although already suffering from the economic aftershocks of its decision to leave the EU, is still a member of the common market. Each member country can authorize emergency vaccination, including Hungary. The United Kingdom has granted provisional authorization under EU rules for the vaccine supplied by Pfizer. Just as Hungary approved the use of the Russian vaccine. It is another matter that while Pfizer filled the British orders, the Russians didn’t fill the Hungarian ones.

A lot of people in Hungary are genuinely afraid that the country’s autocrat might begin a propaganda campaign aimed at a Hungarian exit from the Union. They point out that, within a few years, Fidesz propaganda managed to create the most xenophobic population in the whole EU. Even if not now, after a few years Orbán might be able to succeed if he so desires. One thing is sure. At the moment such a move would be unimaginable given the population’s positive views of the EU. Only 11% of the adult population are dissatisfied with the European Union, and this number naturally includes Orbán’s own supporters.

December 4, 2020

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